Macroeconomic Implications of the Earned Income Tax Credit

Changes in the monthly pattern of Earned Income Tax Credit disbursements over the past decade identify a large macroeconomic consumption response from EITC checks. This paper recovers a large and significant MPC out of EITC disbursements based on a comprehensive array of macroeconomic data and econometric specifications. Point estimates of the contemporaneous consumption response average 0.7 and do not attribute a disproportionate share of consumption to durable goods. Results are consistent with other empirical findings that consumption is excessively sensitive to income, and they suggest that the EITC is a much more effective fiscal stimulus tool than broad-based tax refunds. (JEL: D12, E21, H31;